It goes something like this. First, someone says that something bad is going to happen, usually offering a specific date or event, but never any actual evidence as to why it can be predicted. Next, the rumor spreads, with more and more people getting more and more paranoid about the bad thing that's going to happen, but still with no logical reason to expect it. Finally, the widespread belief that something bad is going to happen actually causes something bad to happen, something which would not have occurred if people had not been told that it would occur.

There are many examples of the Shellenberg effect at work. Try to convince people that the banks are running out of money, or that the stores are running out of food, or that gun violence is out of control. This might be hard to do, but once the number of believers hits a critical mass, a mob of people will rush out to withdraw their money, hoard food, and stock up on weapons, thereby causing the prediction to come true.

The key here is that an irrational belief that something bad is going to happen triggers specific behavioral changes that actually cause it to happen, when it wouldn't have happened otherwise. It doesn't matter if you were one of the people who believed it; just being surrounded by a gullible mob subjects you to the same fate.

That's one of the reasons I was slightly concerned about the 2012 phenomenon. Even if it's not true - listen to me! Even though it's not true, at least in the way people claim, widespread belief in death and destruction can most certainly cause death and destruction. Thankfully, Tuck seemed to be able to read my thoughts on this.

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